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Thursday, January 31, 2008

US Census Bureau - new Census Atlas of the United States

US Census Bureau released today the "first comprehensive atlas in more than 80 years" for the United States. Census Atlas of the United States is available on the Census Bureau Web site by clicking here.

Here's what the press release writes (quote):

"If a picture is worth a thousand words, then the U.S. Census Bureau’s new Census Atlas of the United States speaks volumes about how the nation’s population and housing characteristics have changed over the years. The atlas, with more than 700 full-color maps, is the first general population and housing statistical atlas published by the Census Bureau since 1925. Featuring more than 300 pages and weighing about 7 pounds, the atlas presents data from 1790 through 2000. It is arranged by topic and grouped into three general themes — who we are, where we come from and what we do. Most maps feature county-level detail for the United States and Puerto Rico. 'The Census Atlas of the United States is an invitation to spend several hours considering the characteristics of our country,” said former Census Bureau Director Louis Kincannon. “These maps do not merely offer graphic representations of the facts and data. They reveal the relationships among our nation’s people and the states, cities and counties where they have chosen to live. In short, the book tells the story of our nation — its past, present and future.'"

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"Stop behaving as whiner of first resort" (Dr Ricardo Hausmann writes in FT)

Dr Ricardo Hausmann, director of Harvard University's Center for International Development, writes in the Financial Times, "Stop behaving as whiner of first resort". Commenting after the recent actions by the Fed in cutting down interest rates in hopes of avoiding a recession, he writes:

"macroeconomic policy should not be based on a panicky attempt to avoid a 2008 recession at all costs but on a forward-looking strategy that achieves the needed reduction in consumption at the lowest cost in terms of the stable growth. This is not achieved by giving US households a $1,000 cheque by April, a trick that no macro­economic textbook would argue is particularly effective. If there is fiscal room – a big if, given the weak structural position of the US government and its likely cyclical worsening – it would be better spent in accelerating investments in plant and equipment via accelerated depreciation schemes, to improve the capacity of the economy to keep on growing after the crisis."

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Monday, January 28, 2008

2008 - 20018 US Congress Budget Outlook

For those interested, the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released this month the 2008 to 2018 fiscal years budget outlook. Click here to download the full report. The report includes "Budget Outlook", "The Economic Outlook", "The Spending Outlook" and "The Revenue Outlook". I have never read such report before, so I have nothing to share except the fact that it is released, it is available to download, and one blogger (Time: The Curios Capitalist) wrote something about it. I am reading it now as I post this blog note.

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US 2002 Economic Census Rankings

The US Census Bureau released today a data mining report on all 50 US States, based on 2002 census data (2007 data is in the works). Economic census is conducted every 5 years, press release reports, with 4 million businesses recently received the 2007 questionnaires, which are to be completed by Feb12. "Economically speaking, every state in our [US] nation is tops at something", the US Census press release reports. Notable findings include the following. People in Hawaii spend the most at fast-food restaurants (609$ per person annually) compared to other states. Delaware residents spend the most at shoe stores annually ($128 dollars annually) - (note, a WSJ blog argues that Delawarians may not have spent $128 dollars on shoes, instead data states that (quote) "shoe stores in Delaware totaled $103.1 million in sales in 2002" - hence, it could be interpreted that Delaware-stores might have instead sold the most across the country). Other findings, quoted from WSJ blog, include (quote) "Washington state residents spend a lot at the dentist; Nashville’s music scene is thriving; people in Wisconsin bowl — a lot; and Alaskan chiropractors are raking it in. –Kelly Evans"
Full report on every state and industry is available at this link, or by clicking on each state below.

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

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Sunday, January 27, 2008

Nobel Laureate Stiglitz discusses Fed Cut & US elections in WSJ

Nobel Laureate, Dr Joseph E. Stiglitz, also famously known for his critical view of globalization (check his book "Making Globalization Work" and corresponding lecture), discusses the recent Federal Reserve rate cut and US elections with WSJ's Joellen Perry at World Economic Forum in Davos. Entire paragraphs below are quoted as is from WSJ Real Time Economics Blog:

Was the Fed’s recent three-quarter-percentage-point cut appropriate?
The Fed clearly played a very big role in creating the current problem. [One reason is that] monetary policy takes [up to] 18 months to have effects. If you believe that, you have to believe that they haven’t done a good job. They were focusing on inflation - and there is an inflation risk – but the balance of risks was clearly an economic downturn, as we’re seeing. They just misjudged the situation terribly. Their job is to assess these risks. And yes, the world is complicated, but I think the only thing you can say is they obviously judged it wrong.

Will it help revive the economy?
The Fed has already admitted it’s not enough. They say we also need fiscal stimulus – this is an amazing admission from the Fed, because central banks typically do not encourage deficit spending. In 1993, Alan Greenspan almost made it a condition that there be deficit reduction. The fact is, he was acting politically – just as Bernanke’s acting politically. And we should recognize that. This myth of the Fed as a nonpolitical institution is a myth. And the myth is harmful to the institutional credibility of the United States.

You have been a critic of globalization. Some observers are worried about a protectionist tenor they hear creeping into the Democratic candidates’ campaigns. How will that take shape if one of them wins?
All of them are worried about where this is going, even as they engage in it. What I’ve been encouraging is that social protection doesn’t mean protectionism. And the reality is, many Americans are worse off than they were … So the Democratic candidates have to do something.

Who do you think will win?
I think it’s very much in the air.

Who do you want to win?
I’m not going to comment on that now. I do think that there’s a marked difference between all the Democratic candidates and the Republicans. All the Democratic candidates have good economic platforms and recognize the problem. While they’re making a great deal of effort to differentiate themselves from each other, the fact is they are much closer to each other and there’s a very big difference between them and the Republican candidates.

Is there a difference between the Democratic candidates on how they could improve the perception of the U.S. abroad?
Yes. I think there’s absolutely no doubt that [Illinois Sen. Barack] Obama’s victory would have a very quick and instantaneous change on perceptions abroad of American democracy and openness.

Why would Obama have more impact than, say, Clinton?
His experiences living abroad [make a difference], and the fact that America could be open racially has a symbolic value.

The election of a woman has less groundbreaking power?
I think so. Because we’re so far behind. For most of the world, it’s inconceivable that that would be a barrier. Whereas racism is a barrier in many parts of the world. But many advanced industrial countries have had women leaders. So it’s not like we’re breaking ground.

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Friday, January 25, 2008

Iman Bakri poems - powerful message to Arab leaders

By pure coincidence, I encountered video recordings of the Egyptian poet Iman Bakri resiting poems that reminds us of the many political corruption in the Arab world. Listed below is my favorite poems of Iman Bakri and freely floating on the Internet.

* Kolona Min-7ibak ya 7mar.



* Howa Ma Feesh Haja?



* Makarena



* Dimolokhia



* Deek Ta Tor



* Dastoor Ya Asyadna



More videos of Iman Bakri is available on YouTube by clicking here

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Thursday, January 24, 2008

Half the world is skeptic of new innovation

The non-profit organization, "The Institute for Innovation & Information Productivity", releases the results of a new survey that measures consumers' confidence for using new technologies in their daily lives. Representative sample of 25,000 adults 18 to 64 years old and from different countries in Asia, the Middle East, South East Asia, Europe, North America as well as South America were asked (quote) "if, over the next six months, they were likely to buy products or services new to the market, they were likely to try products or services that use new technologies for the first time, and whether new products and services will improve their lives." The findings seems interesting. "Only 30 percent of Dutch working age adults believe that new products or services will improve their lives in the next six months, compared with 60 percent of United States consumers, and 80 percent in India and the United Arab Emirates". It is important to note that the index was created to measure how much countries are receptive to new technologies regardless of whether such technologies are useful or not. The study finds, and the table below clearly shows, that nearly half of the population "appears resistant to latest innovations. " 'The difference in innovation confidence across the countries in our sample is striking. In some continental European countries, over half of working-age people lack confidence in new innovations. We found a more positive acceptance of innovation in fast-growing economies,' said the report's author Dr. Jonathan Levie of the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow. 'We can't yet say what effect these results imply for the rates of domestic innovation in these countries. But given that innovative entrepreneurs need people to buy their new products or services, Europe may be right to be concerned,' Levie said". The press release does not explain why United Arab Emirates ranks the first, but I requested a copy of the full report. You can do just the same by clicking here. You can also read the press release and the New York Times article by Steve Lohr, who thanks to him I encountered the topic.

IIIP Innovation Confidence Index
(from the most confident nation to the least)
Nation IIIP Innovation
Confidence Index
Sample Size
United Arab Emirates 76 2097
India 73 1601
Brazil 68 2000
Ireland 66 1897
China 60 2666
United States 58 1583
United Kingdom 55 2069
Italy 54 2000
Turkey 51 2400
Slovenia 48 3020
Finland 44 2005
The Netherlands 38 1479

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Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Handala - Arab Icon of Suffering & Hope

With the ongoing suffering of many Arab people due to injustice and aggression of the more powerful, I remembered the works of the late Naji Al-Ali, the late Palestinian cartoonist and the creator of the icon Handala. Naji Al-Ali was shot by unknown persons in London on 22 July 1987 and died five weeks later. However, his 40,000 cartoons where many included an icon of a boy, Handala, with his face against the viewer as a symbol of rejection and disappointment after the forced migration of the Palestinian people from their land, remain to this day as a reminder to us Arabs that we should be ashamed of ourselves. The wealth of our oil, smartness of our political minds, and the innovations from our intellectual thinking can't get our own people back to their homeland and develop as a whole unified nation.

Many works of Naji Al-Ali is available at Hanaa Ramly's site, dedicated to Naji Al-Ali. I took permission from the producer Hana Ramly to post her video on Handala here. Check it out or view it below:

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Tuesday, January 22, 2008

What's going on? Any Arabs complaining against Israeli Aggression? Part II

As a follow up to my yesterday's blog, "What's going on? Any Arabs complaining against Israeli Aggression?" which discusses Israeli anti-humanitarian blockade of Gaza (860,000 people and institutions including hospitals had their electricity cut by Israel), couple of interesting events occurred since then. First, as I expected that closing the borders between Egypt and Gaza (Ramah border) will only make the matter worse, the worse did happen. Palestinian people tried to cross the border to Egypt (an Arab nation for Arab people), and gun fire broke out. Reuters reports "one Egyptian police officer was shot and wounded, and nine others were hurt by stone-throwing and in scuffles, security sources said, speaking on customary condition of anonymity. There was no immediate word on any Palestinian casualties". 50 Palestinian women managed to cross the border. I don't think they planned to cross the border for a touristic visit; it is quite clear that Gaza is living under a humanitarian crisis due to the Israeli block, and innocent ARAB brothers and sisters need shelter nad he. Rather than just keep "urging" (or shall I say "begging") Israel to stop its aggression, Arab nations can at least welcome the women and children that are suffering from such inhumane aggression instead of blocking them.



On the other hand, the humanitarian situation in Gaza is still getting worse, even though Israel decided to ease the blockade by letting fuel come in after facing pressure from the international community + US). Reuters AlertNet reported that "gallons of sewage" flooded the streets. See the latest video below from Aljazeera.

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US & world markets tumble

As expected (see previous blog article, "a gloomy 2008"), fear of recession in the United States sparked a plunge of equities markets across Europe and Asia, and one day later (today) in the United States (yesterday the US market was closed due to Martin Luther King public holiday) . Even though the markets in US do not open till 9:30ET (one hour and a half from the time of this writing), all market indications (futures, forecasts, analysis) is expecting downfalls in the US as well. I think all eyes were on 4th quarter financial report of Bank of America, 2nd largest bank in the US, released this morning prior to opening bell of Wall Street and reported very weak earnings with profits down 95% (see Bloomberg, NYT). The global market might have feared that even the largest banks were not excluded from the sub-prime crisis and weak housing market, feared that investments in the US is very risky and began dumping off equity stocks. One can note that the global did not react favorably when President Bush proposed an economic stimulus plan of 140 billion dollars last Friday in hope of saving the US economy from a recession. Globally, CNN reports "London's FTSE 100 was down more than 0.5 percent, Paris' CAC 40 was down almost 1.5 percent, Frankfurt's DAX 30 was down more than 2 percent" and "Japan's Nikkei 225 index slid 5.65 percent Tuesday to close at 12,573.05, Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX200 index closed down 7.1 percent at 5,186.8 -- the biggest one-day loss for almost 20 years. China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed down 7.2 percent at 4,559.75." Just now, Federal Reserve Chairman, Bernanke, who previously did not think we were heading to a recession (see "a gloomy 2008" article note above), reported that the Federal Reserve will cut down key interest rate by three quarters of a percent in fear of recession. from The New York Times


In my opinion, I think that the global market has correctly blamed the United States over the sub-prime crisis of 2006 and reacted more aggressively when it did not see a true punishment of the financial institutions that were involved in such very risky investments. In this globalized world, global markets are heavily dependent on the US market and vice versa, and thus what a consumer citizen would do in America is likely to effect all societies across the continent. Financial companies in the US basically handed over loads of credit cards with very little if not any past credit check, virtually encouraging irresponsible individuals to max out their credit cards, give up payments and get hit with endless high interest fees.

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Monday, January 21, 2008

What's going on? Any Arabs complaining against Israeli Aggression?

While the US honors the birthday of the champion of peace, racial equality and the civil rights movements, Dr Martin Luther King, and while the free market forces are showing their dark side in the world business market, 860,000 Palestinians in Gaza are currently left with no light and soon without food. Israel shut down power last Sunday on Gazans after it blocked patrol supplies.
"At least 800,000 people are now in darkness," said Derar Abu Sissi, general director of the plant. "The catastrophe will affect hospitals, medical clinics, water wells, houses, factories, all aspects of life." On top of that, Egypt decided to put more security at the borders with Gaza, which in my opinion will only make the matter worse. Moreover, United Nations UNRWA fears that it will be forced to halt food supplies if Israeli blockade on Gaza is not eased. It currently has two month worth of food supplies. Worse, even a grave digging in Gaza for those that die is even a problem, read this. Additional information on the shortage of supplies in Gaza is available here.



"Palestinians wait to buy bread from a baker in the Gaza Strip January 21, 2008. Large parts of the Gaza Strip plunged into darkness when its main power plant shut down after Israel blocked fuel supplies and closed the border to the Hamas-run territory. REUTERS/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa (GAZA)"

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Saturday, January 19, 2008

Rich man, poor man: The life expectancy gap (Economic Policy Institute)

Monique Morrissey from Economic Policy Institute, a nonprofit and nonpartisan think tank on American society and economy, reports that American adults who turned 60 in 2001 and make the top half of earnings distribution are likely to live 5.8 years more than those of the bottom half of earnings distribution, based on a recent research study by Hilary Waldron of the Social Security Administration. The gap was 1.2 years in 1972, the report says. The study suggests socioeconomic and health care differences, stressing on the "disparities in treatment of heart diseases and cancer" between rich and poor, as the culprit for such a phenomena; and it notes that such inequality gap between rich and poor is not found in neighboring Canada, which has a universal health coverage.

I agree with Monique Morrissey, that quote "as inequality in America worsens, we can expect this longevity gap between the rich and poor to grow even wider." (Monique Morrissey)

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Survey: Americans Lost on The Map

A 2006 National Geographic survey of 510 young American adults, randomly selected nationwide and between the ages of 18 and 24 (sample of 510), revealed a “limited understanding of the world” by Americans. Only fifty-five percent of the young Americans answered basic geographic questions correctly. Notable results, as summarized by National Geographic, include the following: Only thirty-seven percent could find Iraq on the map, even after more than three years of American military presence there. Many could not identify Saudi Arabia; only one in four found Iran (26%) or Israel (25%). Six in ten young Americans are not fluent in any foreign language. Twenty percent thought Sudan is in Asia, when in fact it is the largest country in Africa. Forty-eight percent believed that Islam is the largest religion in India, when Hindu is the dominant religion by large. Half of the young Americans could not even find New York on the map.



National Geographic concludes that (quote) “these results suggest that young people in the United States—the most recent graduates of our educational system—are unprepared for an increasingly global future. Far too many lack even the most basic skills for navigating the international economy or understanding the relationships among people and places that provide critical context for world events.”


Source: National Geographic and MESH. Full report is freely available at this link.

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Lebanon - Gana El-Hawa

I missed Lebanon. 6 years in the United States and watching the events in Lebanon from a distance... I simply missed Lebanon - my home. My kids are growing and all they know about their grand parents is their voices via the phone. I missed the Lebanese soil, ocean, mountains, people and its air that we breath - good or bad.

Memories came up when I watched and listened to Abdel Halim - Gana El-Hawa video which was performed in Lebanon.

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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Study: Poverty, Growth and Income Distribution in Lebanon

I came across an interesting peer-reviewed study, "Poverty, Growth, and Income Distribution in Lebanon", prepared by Dr Heba Laithy, Khalid Abu-Ismail, and Kamal Hamdan for the International Poverty Centre, part of the United Nations Human Development Programme (UNDP). This blog item is not meant to review the research because it will not give enough credit to the valuable material from such a research on Lebanon, especially that detailed statistical information on Lebanon is not easily accessible. Nevertheless, I thought that it would be interesting to share my notes after reading the research. The paper is available on the Net by clicking here.

The research analyzes poverty in Lebanon, especially extreme poverty, and suggests ways to overcome the problem. It finds that annual average per capita consumption in Lebanon excluding regional price differentials is $2650 dollars, highest in Beirut district and lowest in the North district; consumption distribution by societal status is unequal, with bottom 20% of the Lebanese population accounting for low 7% of all consumption, and the richest 20% of the population accounting for high 43% of all consumption. 8% (300K) of the Lebanese population live under an extreme poverty, which the paper reports to be $2.4 per day, and 28.5% (1 million people) are generally poor. The research also notes that 20.3% of GDP is required to improve the non-poor growth condition in order to statistically shrink the percent of poor people, whereas a lesser 14.8% of GDP would be required if government directly focuses on the poor. Quote: "When growth is pro-poor [directly focus on the poor], only 108$ per capita is required annually, whereas this amount increases to 213$ and 485$ in the 'distribution-neutral' [impartial focus on either poor or non-poor] and 'anti-poor' [focus on the non-poor] growth scenario”.
To me, a much more interesting finding is as follows. The paper states that it would cost every Lebanese resident only US $ 12 annually to lift the extremely poor individuals from extreme poverty, and US $116 to lift the entire average poor. Quote: "at US $ 12 per capita, the annual cost of eradicating extreme poverty in Lebanon is relatively modest, representing only a fraction of the country's annual external debt obligations." Other notable findings:

* The North district has 20.7% of total Lebanese population but holds 46% of the extremely poor ones and 38% of the overall poor. On the other hand, extremely poor are overrepresented in the South and the Bekaa in relation to their respective populations. Quote: “Bulk of poverty across the whole country is concentrated in four strata: Tripoli City, Akkar/Minieh-Dennieh, Jezzine/Saida and Hermel/Baalbeck are home to two thirds of the extremely poor and half of the entire population despite the fact that they make up less than one third of the Lebanese population."

* (Nice observation and worth additional study) even the extremely poor youth with higher educational degrees are highly unemployed; half of extremely poor are unemployed, as well as one third of university graduates. This is a sharp contrast to one fifth of non-poor youth with higher education being unemployed. Moreover, households headed by individuals with less than elementary education constitute 45% of the total poor. By economic sector, the research reports, (quote) "agriculture and construction exhibits the largest shares of extremely poor workers.

* Illiteracy rate of the poor is highest in Beirut (38%), though one would assume that the district with the highest poverty (i.e. the North) would have the highest illiteracy. The research suggests that since agricultural activities are dominant in the North, low returns from labor in that region discouraged education advancement and resulted in a weak statistical correlation between illiteracy and poverty.

The paper then suggests fiver major pillars to tackle extreme poverty in Lebanon. A) “Inclusive and sustained growth” (jobs, productivity and incomes for poor households); B) “expanding educational opportunities” by ensuring that the poor enroll and remain in schools; C) “promoting more balanced regional development”, such as improving development condition in the North; D) “focusing resources on poor households”, maybe by eliminating benefits to those with higher income or apply some test mechanism, such as Proxy Means Test, to identify eligible person; E) “monitoring outcomes” for an successful action plan. The research then concludes with several specific mechanisms to address the issue. This is an interesting research; especially that it includes many rich statistical data on Lebanon. I recommend that you read it.

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another explosion in Lebanon

A car bomb killing four civilians in Lebanon shocked the Lebanese nation and its people yesterday. A US embassy envoy was passing by in the northern suburbs of Beirut when a bomb hidden in a parked car nearby exploded. Harald Doornbos, a Dutch journalist, lives next to where the explosion happened and takes a video of the immediate aftermath of the bombing. The video is shown below:


if you cannot see it, click here.

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Monday, January 14, 2008

US Electoral Compass - where do you stand?

A political scientist, Andre Krouwel, created a US Electoral Compass on http://www.electoralcompass.com . The idea is to answer various political questions, notably on health care, economy, security and illegal immigration, and the compass will analyze your political position among the left-wing and right-wing US presidential candidates. When I tried it myself, the results were as following: "you have responded to 36 propositions. Based on the responses you provided, you are the closest to John Edwards and you are the furthest away from Fred Thompson." The compass placed me among the Economic Left and Social Liberalism - Progressive quadrant (pencil in the image below). Honestly, I do share many political and economical views of the Leftists, though sometimes Economic Right thinking such as tax-cuts do make sense - but not always. I am not a US citizen to vote for a Democrat or a Republican in the 2008 US elections. Nevertheless, it is an interesting experience to watch and study.

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Sunday, January 13, 2008

Rights vs. Rights: An Improbable Collision Course - New York Times

The New York Times published an excellent article, Rights vs. Rights: An Improbable Collision Course., and possibly subject to heated debate during the 2008 US elections, especially for the Democratic nomination battle between Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama. Mrs Clinton aims to be the first woman to win the Democratic presidential nomination, where as Mr Obama aims to be the first African-American to win instead. First woman or first African-American representing the Democratic party is a historical milestone in the the US history, and marks a new victory in both, the civil rights and women's rights movements, of the past century. "But feel-great story or not, they can’t pick both. Someone will lose. Such is football, Yahtzee and elections. And either Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton — and the movements they represent — will be consigned, for the time being, to a status of 'almost.'", quoted from the article. Are we then in a historical collision between two great ideological movements, civil rights and women's rights? If in the past, Blacks and women were considered to be the minority among a white-dominated society and therefore where subject to past ugly acts of oppression, inequality and lesser rights, then which leader (an African-America or a woman) will convince the US public that he or she can represent everyone as the next President of the United States? Historically, the civil rights movements and the women's equality movements did not collide. Both movements shared the same principle: civil liberty, equality and freedom. The article writes, "blacks won the right to vote with the 15th Amendment in 1870; women won theirs with the 19th Amendment, in 1920, a half-century later. Each of their causes would stutter-step along at sometimes different paces, but usually in some loose if not formal concert. " However, The New York Times quotes Joan Scott, a professor of social science at the Institute for Advanced Study, "the question is, how do you become a universal figure when you represent movements that have claimed the right of equality for you in your difference?" Can Ms Clinton convince the African-Americans when she references Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. (apparently she did not, read this) , and similarly can Mr Obama convince the women that he is better as president than Ms Clinton (he did not in New Hampshire, read this)?

Quoted the article "...a notion had clearly taken hold that it would be only a matter of time before a woman or a minority candidate would seriously challenge for the presidency. Who would figure that both would happen the same year?." "We’re on the verge of a stunning first,' Mr. Patterson said, professor emeritus of history at Brown University."

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Friday, January 11, 2008

a gloomy 2008

A gloomy 2008 economic year for the United States. US trade deficit (import more than export) has risen to $63 billion (9.3% increase) for the month of November, its highest level for the last 14 months. However, US exports did rise by 0.4% ($142.3bn), thanks to a cheaper US dollar that would make US products more competitive internationally. Elsewhere, many economists, starting with the US Federal Reserve chief, Ben Bernanke, are predicting a major US slowdown in 2008 (Merril Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Bernanke). "The US is facing the twin threats of how to tackle a slowing housing market and lower consumer spending while at the same time addressing inflation as oil and food prices rise.", says Bernanke. Unlike Merril Lynch, Goldman Sachs, and many other major institutions, Bernanke does not believe we are heading to a recession, even though a slow housing market, sub-prime crisis, low employment (only 18,000 jobs created in December), high oil prices (~100 dollars a barrel), and lower equity prices is denting consumer spending. Some economists wants the Fed to cut the interest rates by more than 50 basis points or even to 2.5%, as recommended by Goldman Sachs. On the other hand, inflation is still at risk. Consumer pricing rose to 0.8% between November and December, as US and UK banks were cutting interest rates to fuel the economy. Therefore, we have a two edge sword, commonly known as "stagflation": a rise in inflation, which would be fought by a higher or steady interest rate, and at at the same time a slow economy, which would signal a recession and be fought by a lower interest rate. "It's going to be a difficult road", says one economist.

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Friday, January 04, 2008

Lebanese Rural Life

daher100 on YouTube publishes three videos on Lebanon's rural life and a Lebanese-way lunch.

Rural Life in Lebanon - part One:




Rural Life in Lebanon - part Two
:



Lunch, Lebanese way:

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The Political Compass - where do you stand?

The Political Compass allows you to test where you politically and economically stand. Left or Right? Social Libertarian or Authoritarian? Site notes that Facebook has a similar survey tool but that one logs your results,whereas the test found on the site treats the results as purely anonymous.





If you are interested in knowing if your political or economical thoughts align with famous thinkers, such as Stalin, Thatcher, Gandhi, Friedman, and many others, then I suggest you try it. The site provides detail explanation on the political and economical alignment of well-known thinkers and rulers.

When I did the survey myself, it placed me under the Left-Libertarian bracket.

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Wednesday, January 02, 2008

YouTube - وديع الصافي مع نجوم الزجل

I couldn't help myself but post on my blog a zajal song (arabic) for Wadih El-Safih. YouTube - وديع الصافي مع نجوم الزجل



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Tuesday, January 01, 2008

1968 (Forty Years Ago)

In the first day of 2008 that marks the fortieth anniversary of the 1968 revolutions and rebellions across the world (Vietnam War, Assassination of Martin Luther King, French & British student protests, and many other events), Eugene Plawiuk sums it all on his blog, LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Analysis And Comment: Forty Years Ago


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